Locata – Predictive model for assessing future TA need
Councils can now estimate the size and cost of their future Temporary Accommodation (TA) need using a predictive model developed by Andy Gale, one of the country’s leading homelessness experts.
It is designed to help housing managers make the case for additional budget or capital resources to help purchase lower-cost TA.
This is particularly important given the current economic downturn and cost of living crisis, with some commentators claiming that we are “facing a tsunami of homelessness”.
The free predictive model is available for download from the Locata website, by clicking this link.
The model establishes a “baseline position” allowing a council to record the numbers in TA and then breaks it down by each reason for a TA placement.
If the exercise is conducted at the end of March actual figures can be used.
Each reason for a TA placement is examined with guidance on whether TA placements are likely to rise, or remain the same, or fall.
Officers then input their own estimate for the impact on TA for each cause of a TA placement, allowing an accurate estimate of the council’s additional TA need.
The predicted figure can then be checked against the national trend as data emerges from Government published HCLIC statistics, which are normally published six months behind.
The model then helps estimate the potential cost of these additional TA placements if the only alternative TA options available to a council are either B&B or nightly rate TA. These two types of TA are the most expensive options available to a council.
Once the predictive model has been completed, managers will be able to make the case for:
- Additional budget
- Capital resources to buy lower-cost TA
- Other interventions such as increasing the percentage of social housing properties targeted at households in TA
- Or a combination of all of the above
